:Product: 19970724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 205 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8065 (N17W43)
EMERGED OVERNIGHT AND HAS SHOWN STEADY GROWTH. THE GROUP PRODUCED
THE DAY'S LARGEST X-RAY EVENT, A B9/SF AT 1305Z. SURGE ACTIVITY AND
X-RAY IMAGE DATA SHOW THAT A NEW REGION IS COMING AROUND EAST LIMB
AT ABOUT N26.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BACKGROUND FLUX LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUL 079
PREDICTED   25 JUL-27 JUL  080/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUL 072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01