:Product: 19970725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 206 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8065 (N18W56) HAS
CONTINUED TO GROW AND SHOWS THE FORMATION OF SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE GROUP WHERE
A GAMMA (AND POTENTIALLY A DELTA) CONFIGURATION HAS FORMED. THE
INVERSION LINE RUNS IN A MOSTLY EAST-WEST DIRECTION AND IS A GOOD
CANDIDATE FOR DEVELOPING SHEAR. THE GROUP PRODUCED NUMEROUS LOW
LEVEL C-FLARES TODAY. THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE WAS A LONG DURATION
C4/SN THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 2015Z, ROSE SLOWLY TO MAXIMUM AT 2035Z,
AND WAS DECAYING SLOWLY AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME. THIS EVENT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RADIO BURSTS (1600 SFU AT 2695 MHZ), AND TYPE
II/IV RADIO SWEEPS. THE TYPE II SHOCK SPEED WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 900 KM/S. THERE ARE THREE OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK
INCLUDING NEW REGION 8066 (N22E73), BUT THESE REGIONS WERE
RELATIVELY CALM COMPARED TO 8065.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSLY
LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION
8065 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THERE WERE OCCASIONAL
UNSETTLED PERIODS, PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE ON THE THIRD DAY
IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL HOLE THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO A
GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION AT THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JUL-28 JUL
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 JUL 080
PREDICTED   26 JUL-28 JUL  082/082/080
90 DAY MEAN        25 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL  015/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 JUL-28 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/10