:Product: 19970727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 208 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED
A OCCASIONAL B-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A B9/SF FROM
REGION 8062 (N27W65) AT 0333Z. REGION 8065 (N16W83) IS THE LARGEST
GROUP ON THE SUN BUT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY FLARE ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. BACKGROUND LEVELS SHOULD DECLINE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS
REGION 8065 ROTATES AROUND WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE
PERIODS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS A RESPONSE TO
THE LONG DURATION EVENT OF 25 JULY (FOR DAY 2) AND DUE TO EFFECTS
FROM A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE (DAYS 2 AND 3).
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUL 075
PREDICTED   28 JUL-30 JUL  072/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL  008/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  015/015-020/035-020/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/10