:Product: 19970728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 209 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8065 (N16W95) DEPARTED THE DISK QUIETLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD MAY
BECOME ACTIVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CORONAL HOLE AND A
LONG-DURATION X-RAY EVENT WHICH OCCURRED ON 25 JULY. THE FIELD
SHOULD RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY THE END OF 31 JULY
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUL 074
PREDICTED   29 JUL-31 JUL  072/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  020/035-020/030-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05