:Product: 19970730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 211 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE SOHO/LASCO
EXPERIMENT OBSERVED A LARGE (>200 DEGREES) CME EVENT AT ABOUT
30/0830Z. THIS EVENT WAS CORRELATED IN TIME WITH A PARTIAL FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE NEAR N45E21, A GOES X-RAY ENHANCEMENT BEGINNING AT
30/0839Z AND PEAKING AT 30/0907Z (A7 PEAK), AND ENHANCED CORONAL
ARCADES BETWEEN REGIONS 8064 (N23W34) AND 8066 (N24E09) SEEN IN
YOHKOH IMAGERY.  PARTICLE ENHANCEMENTS OR RADIO SWEEP ACTIVITY WAS
NOT OBSERVED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN ON
AUGUST 2 DUE TO THE CME EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JUL 071
PREDICTED   31 JUL-02 AUG  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        30 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL  007/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG  005/008-005/008-015/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 JUL-02 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05