:Product: 19970803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 215 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8068 (S22E33). A FAINT 10 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N09E56
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 02/2210Z AND 03/1031Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AFTER 03/1500Z AT HIGH LATITUDES.
THE STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE CME EVENT OBSERVED 30
JULY AT 0830Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 AUG 072
PREDICTED   04 AUG-06 AUG  072/071/070
90 DAY MEAN        03 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 AUG  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG  010/013-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01