:Product: 19970804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 216 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE PAST
24 HOURS. AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED AT
MID-LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SECTORS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 AUG 073
PREDICTED   05 AUG-07 AUG  073/073/072
90 DAY MEAN        04 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 AUG  014/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 AUG  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 AUG-07 AUG  010/010-005/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01