:Product: 19970806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 218 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8069 (N21W48)
SHOWED STRONG GROWTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW A DAO SPOT
GROUP. THIS REGION MANAGED TO PRODUCE A MINOR B-CLASS FLARE. THE
OTHER TWO SPOTTED REGIONS, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK,
WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8069 HAS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH AND A POSSIBLE C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 AUG 077
PREDICTED   07 AUG-09 AUG  078/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        06 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 AUG  006/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG  005/007-005/007-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01