:Product: 19970807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 219 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8069 (N21W62)
EMITTED A SERIES OF B-CLASS, SUB-FAINT FLARES, BUT REMAINED
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGION 8070 (S19E25)
SHOWED SOME STRONG GROWTH AND IS NOW A DSO SPOT GROUP. REGION 8068
(S20W22) REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGIONS 8069 AND 8070 HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 AUG 078
PREDICTED   08 AUG-10 AUG  078/078/076
90 DAY MEAN        07 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 AUG  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG  005/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01