:Product: 19970809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 221 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8069 (N21W86) PRODUCED A
NUMBER OF C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AS IT MAKES LIMB TRANSIT. ITS LARGEST
EVENT WAS A C8 AT 1634Z. NEW REGION 8072 (N21E21) EMERGED QUIETLY ON
THE DISK, WHILE THE OTHER SPOT GROUPS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM
REGION 8069.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
CLASS M    10/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 AUG 078
PREDICTED   10 AUG-12 AUG  078/078/076
90 DAY MEAN        09 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  005/005-005/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01