:Product: 19970810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 222 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURGING FROM NOW-DEPARTED REGION 8069 (N21W99) WERE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY OF THE DAY. THE LARGEST EVENTS WERE A C4 AT 2019Z AND A C3
AT 0729Z. THE TWO REMAINING SPOTTED REGIONS, 8070 (S20W15) AND 8071
(N26E37), WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. REGION 8069 WILL BE TWO DAYS PAST WEST LIMB TOMORROW, AND
LIKELY TOO REMOTE TO PRODUCE EVENTS DETECTABLE FROM NEAR-EARTH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD
OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF SUBSTORM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED SUBSTORMS MAY
PERSIST DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
CLASS M    05/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 AUG 078
PREDICTED   11 AUG-13 AUG  078/078/080
90 DAY MEAN        10 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01