:Product: 19970811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 223 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY
PERSISTED, ALTHOUGH THE FREQUENCY OF THE EVENTS DECREASED. THE
LARGEST X-RAY BURST, A C5 AT 0003Z, WAS SEEN IN X-RAY IMAGERY DATA
AS BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIGHTENING IN OLD REGION 8069, NOW
NEARLY 3 DAYS BEYOND WEST LIMB NEAR N21. TWO NEW REGIONS ROTATED
INTO VIEW, 8073 (N14E74) AND 8074 (N26E75). BOTH GROUPS SHOW MATURE
H-TYPE SPOTS. REGION 8073 IS THE APPARENT RETURN OF OLD REGION 8065,
THE SITE OF THREE C-CLASS FLARES ON JULY 25.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS
OCCURRED ON AN OTHERWISE QUIET DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED, WITH SUBSTORMS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 AUG 080
PREDICTED   12 AUG-14 AUG  082/082/084
90 DAY MEAN        11 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 AUG  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01