:Product: 19970812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 224 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. X-RAY BURSTS HAVE BEEN
SMALLER AND LESS FREQUENT, WITH THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD JUST
A B3. THE FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS HAVE ALL BEEN QUIET AND STABLE. A
FIFTH AS YET UNNUMBERED REGION MAY BE APPEARING NEAR N27W54. UNLIKE
THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 AUG 081
PREDICTED   13 AUG-15 AUG  082/082/084
90 DAY MEAN        12 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01