:Product: 19970813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 225 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A FEW, LOW LEVEL B-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8070 (S19W54) SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND
FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8071
(N26W06) ALSO SHOWED OCCASIONAL BRIGHTENINGS BUT WAS OTHERWISE VERY
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8070 COULD PRODUCE A C-CLASS EVENT IF THE CURRENT
GROWTH TREND CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 0600-1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 AUG 082
PREDICTED   14 AUG-16 AUG  084/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        13 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  005/010-005/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01