:Product: 19970814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 226 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8071 (N26W22) PRODUCED A
C1/SF FLARE AT 0132Z. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FLARES SINCE THIS
EVENT AND THE REGIONS ON THE DISK APPEAR TO BE STABLE. STACKED
REGIONS 8073 (N14E36) AND 8074 (N26E38) CURRENTLY SHARE A NEUTRAL
LINE BETWEEN 8073'S TRAILER AND 8074'S LEADER, BUT THE FIELDS ARE
RATHER WEAK, AND THIS AREA DOES NOT CURRENTLY POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLARE THREAT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITALLY UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME INCREASINGLY
DISTURBED BETWEEN 0400-0900Z: MIDDLE LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE
AND HIGH LATITUDES SHOWED A RANGE OF LEVELS FROM ACTIVE TO MAJOR
STORM. SINCE 0900Z, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED PERIODS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND
UNSETTLED TO QUIET FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME ACTIVE LEVEL DISTURBANCES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 AUG 080
PREDICTED   15 AUG-17 AUG  080/078/076
90 DAY MEAN        14 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  017/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  010/010-010/005-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05