:Product: 19970815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 227 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8075 (N29E46)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FLUX LEVELS SINCE
15/1259Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 AUG 078
PREDICTED   16 AUG-18 AUG  076/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        15 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG  018/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  010/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05