:Product: 19970816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
***************************CORRECTED COPY******************************************
SDF NUMBER 228 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A 5 DEGREE FILAMENT AT
N13E27 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 16/0429Z AND 16/0512Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 AUG 078
PREDICTED   17 AUG-19 AUG  078/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        16 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
99999
PLAIN
CORRECTED PART IB. TO READ VERY LOW
99999