:Product: 19970819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 231 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8073 (N14W31) IS
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND HAS NOT PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 AUG 074
PREDICTED   20 AUG-22 AUG  074/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        19 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG  005/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01