:Product: 19970821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 233 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  A SINGLE B3/SF FLARE WAS
OBSERVED FROM CURRENTLY SPOTLESS REGION 8074 (N27W54) AT 21/0446Z.
REGION 8073 (N13W60), A ONE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA GROUP, REMAINS STABLE
AS THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
DURING THE INTERVAL 21/0000-0600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 AUG 075
PREDICTED   22 AUG-24 AUG  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        21 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 AUG  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 AUG  009/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 AUG-24 AUG  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01