:Product: 19970826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 238 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8076 (N30E51), STILL
GROWING, PRODUCTED TWO C4/SF FLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION
8077 (S22E45), STABILIZED AND HAS BEEN QUIET. THE REMAINDER OF THE
VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8076 HAS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYS TWO AND THREE MAY SHOW ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LATITUDES,  AS A WEAK POLAR CORONAL HOLE
EXTENSION MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 AUG-29 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 AUG 084
PREDICTED   27 AUG-29 AUG  086/086/086
90 DAY MEAN        26 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 AUG  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 AUG-29 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01