:Product: 19970827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 239 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEVELOPMENT IN REGION 8076 (N29E38) IS TRENDING TOWARD
SIMPLIFICATION. NEW REGION 8078 (N17E27), A SMALL A-TYPE GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED. THIS REGION IS EMBEDDED IN THE SAME EXTENDED PLAGE REGION
AS 8076, BUT IS MAGNETICALLY SEPARATE. A 23-DEGREE-LONG FILAMENT
NEAR THE NW LIMB MAY HAVE DISAPPEARED LATE ON 26 AUGUST (UNCODED
REPORT). NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISK OR LIMB ACTIVITY WAS NOTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY IN
THE REGION 8076/8078 COMPLEX.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT LOW AND MIDDLE GEOMAGNETIC
LATITUDES, WITH ONE UNSETTLED PERIOD OBSERVED BETWEEN 06-09 UT AT
HIGH GEOMAGNETIC LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET LEVELS AT LOWER GEOMAGNETIC LATITUDES,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 AUG 082
PREDICTED   28 AUG-30 AUG  085/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        27 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 AUG  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01