:Product: 19970828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
******************************** CORRECTED COPY ************************************************
SDF NUMBER 240 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SERIES OF B-CLASS
EVENTS, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A B9.3, WERE REPORTED. NONE WERE
CORRELATED WITH OPTICAL FLARES. REGION 8076 (N29E24) CONTINUED ITS
GROWTH AND IS NOW A DSI SPOT GROUP IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION.
NEW REGION 8079 (N15E10) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS REGION IS
APPROXIMATELY 9 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF REGION 8078 (N16E12) AND
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED. HOWEVER, SPACE-BASED X-RAY IMAGES AND
MAGNETIC ANALYSIS INDICATE A TRAILER POLARITY AREA WITHOUT SPOTS
INTERCEDES BETWEEN THE TWO REGIONS, THUS LENDING CREDENCE TO THEIR
SEPARATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8076 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
C-CLASS EVENTS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GOEMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORMING AT ALL
LATITUDES. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN
28/0300 AND 28/0900Z. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF A
MODERATELY WELL-PLACE NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE EXTENSION. SPACE-BASED
INSTRUMENTS INDICATE EARTH WAS IN A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY CORONAL
HOLE STREAM AT THE TIME OF THE DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 AUG 091
PREDICTED   29 AUG-31 AUG  092/092/092
90 DAY MEAN        28 AUG 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/005-010/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
PLAIN
CORRECTED MID LATITUDE MAJOR-SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY FOR DAY 1
99999