:Product: 19970829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 241 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
UNCORRELATED C4 AT 0428Z. REGION 8076 (N28E11) GENERATED A C1/0F AT
1730Z. THIS REGION CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT, RETAINING A
DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8076 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NIGHTTIME
SUBSTORMS BROUGHT EPISODES OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS TO BOTH
MIDDLE AND HIGH GEOMAGNETIC LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SUBSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE, BRINGING SHORT-LIVED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 AUG 092
PREDICTED   30 AUG-01 SEP  093/093/092
90 DAY MEAN        29 AUG 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  016/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  015/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  010/015-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01