:Product: 19970830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 242 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8076 (N28W01)
PRODUCED AN M1/0F TENFLARE AT 29/ 2332Z. SMALL DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS
WERE REPORTED, AMONG THEM 200 SFU AT 245 MHZ, AND 130 SFU AT 2695
MHZ. NO RADIO SWEEP EVENTS OCCURRED. THE REGION ALSO HAD A C1/0F AT
1125Z, BUT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET WHILE SHOWING DECAY IN WHITE
LIGHT SINCE THEN. ONE NEW REGION WAS BORN ON THE DISK, 8080
(N18W31).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES SHOULD COME FROM REGION 8076, BUT MORE
M-CLASS EVENTS ARE UNLIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. WEAK SUBSTORMS
WERE SEEN AT SOME SITES, ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT-LIVED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SUBSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 AUG-02 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 AUG 092
PREDICTED   31 AUG-02 SEP  092/092/090
90 DAY MEAN        30 AUG 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  010/010-005/008-005/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 AUG-02 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01