:Product: 19970831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 243 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 AUG 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8076 (N29W15) PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST A C2/0F AT 1131Z. THE REGION
CONSISTS OF MORE THAN 30 SPOTS AND MEASURES APPROXIMATELY 200
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT. 8076 DOMINATES A COMPLEX OF REGIONS, OF
WHICH 8078 (N21W20) IS THE SOUTHERN PARTNER. THIS EXTENDED GROUP HAS
BASICALLY A SIMPLE NEUTRAL LINE, NOT APPEARING TO HAVE ANY STRONG
MAGNETIC GRADIENTS. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8081 (N34E72) ROTATED INTO
VIEW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH REGION 8076 PROVIDING THE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MILDLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GOES REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 AUG 096
PREDICTED   01 SEP-03 SEP  096/096/094
90 DAY MEAN        31 AUG 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  005/008-005/006-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01