:Product: 19970901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 244 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8076 (N28W28) REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE VISIBLE, NUMBERING 28 SPOTS AND MEASURING 210
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT. THE REGION WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
AND THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THE C1 X-RAY EVENT AT 0238Z. NEWLY NUMBERED
REGION 8082 (N22E70) APPEARED, MAKING A TOTAL OF FIVE SUNSPOT GROUPS
IN VIEW. FREQUENT TYPE III SWEEP EVENTS AND RADIO BURSTS AT LOW
FREQUENCIES OCCURRED AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AT LOW
LEVELS. REGION 8076 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 SEP 093
PREDICTED   02 SEP-04 SEP  092/092/090
90 DAY MEAN        01 SEP 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01