:Product: 19970902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 245 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE DUE TO AN IMPULSIVE
M1/1N FLARE FROM REGION 8076 (N27W41) AT 02/1230Z. MINOR CENTIMETER
RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. REGION 8076 WAS GENERALLY
STABLE. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES CONTINUED IN SEVERAL AREAS OF THIS
REGION ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGH MAGNETIC GRADIENTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8076 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. REPORTS WERE
RECEIVED OF A CORONAL MORETON WAVE AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN M1/OF EVENT FROM REGION 8076 AT 29/2332Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MAGNETOSPHERE
IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 SEP 092
PREDICTED   03 SEP-05 SEP  092/092/089
90 DAY MEAN        02 SEP 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01