:Product: 19970903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 246 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8076 (N28W54) PRODUCED
FIVE C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 02/2113Z. REGION
8076 DECAYED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8083 (S28E56)
EMERGED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GENERALLY, SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE AT A LOW LEVEL WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION
8076. CONTINUED RAPID GROWTH IN NEW REGION 8083 WILL RESULT IN
C-CLASS EVENTS FROM THAT AREA ALSO. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 8076 REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME ISOLATED HIGH
LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS. SOLAR WIND DATA
SHOWED MODERATELY RAPID INCREASES IN VELOCITY AND DENSITY NEAR
02/2238Z. THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE CME AND
CORONAL MORETON WAVE OBSERVED LATE ON 29 AUG. AT PRESS TIME DENSITY
AND VELOCITY INCREASES (TO 25 P/CC AND 500 KM/S) WERE OBSERVED.
GOES-9 (W135) EXPERIENCED A MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING BETWEEN
03/2100-2110Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 04 SEP AS THE CURRENT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY
UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 05 SEP WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
RETURNING ON 06 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 SEP 093
PREDICTED   04 SEP-06 SEP  094/095/090
90 DAY MEAN        03 SEP 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP  014/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP  020/020-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/10
MINOR STORM           25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/10
MINOR STORM           30/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01