:Product: 19970904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 247 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8076 (N27W64)
DECAYED DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS.
REGION 8083 (S27E42) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE AND
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUB-FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8083 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AS GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS BETWEEN 03/2100-04/0900Z. ISOLATED MAJOR
STORMING WAS OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ISOLATED
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON 05 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 SEP-07 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 SEP 093
PREDICTED   05 SEP-07 SEP  093/090/085
90 DAY MEAN        04 SEP 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP  018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP  019/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP  010/015-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 SEP-07 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01