:Product: 19970905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 248 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A C1/SF FLARE FROM REGION
8076 (N26W83) AT 05/1330Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8083 (S27E29) CONTINUED TO EMERGE
AND PRODUCED A FEW FLUCTUATIONS. OLD REGION 8082 (N21E23) HAD
DECAYED TO ALMOST A SPOTLESS PLAGE BUT DURING THE PERIOD EXHIBITED
MODERATE GROWTH. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8076 WILL BECOME LESS OF A
THREAT AFTER ITS LIMB TRANSIT BUT GROWING REGIONS 8082 AND 8083
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES IMMINENTLY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE OF
03-04 SEP HAS PASSED. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A NOMINAL FLOW.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
CLASS M    15/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 SEP 096
PREDICTED   06 SEP-08 SEP  095/090/087
90 DAY MEAN        05 SEP   075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  005/010-005/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01