:Product: 19970906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 249 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES
OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C1 WHICH REACHED A
MAXIMUM AT 06/2052Z. THE TRAILING PORTION OF REGION 8076 (N25W91) IS
NEARLY AROUND THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8082 (N21E09) AND 8083 (S27E15)
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SUNSPOT STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH THEIR OVERALL
MAGNETIC FIELD CONFIGURATION REMAINS SIMPLE. NEW SUNSPOT GROUP 8085
(S24 E75) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH B AND C CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8076,
8082, 8083, AND 8085. AN ISOLATED M CLASS FLARE IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE
FROM THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS BARELY MODERATE AFTER ABOUT 06/1400Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 SEP 098
PREDICTED   07 SEP-09 SEP  090/088/085
90 DAY MEAN        06 SEP 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05