:Product: 19970907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 250 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8085 (S25E64) HAS
ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A SMALL TO MODERATELY SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT
GROUP. 8085 HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES INCLUDING THE
LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C3/SF AT 07/0620Z. REGION 8083
(S28E04) CONTINUES TO GROW BUT AT A REDUCED RATE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. REGION 8082 (N21W04) HAS STARTED TO DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGION 8085. ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES
ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8082 AND 8083 AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT PREDOMINATELY FROM 8085.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 SEP 102
PREDICTED   08 SEP-10 SEP  105/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        07 SEP 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP  005/008-010/012-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05