:Product: 19970908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 251 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8083 (S28W09)
PRODUCED A M1/SF FLARE AT 08/1938Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAMETRIC RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED  220 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. TODAY'S
OBSERVED PENTICTON 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX (119 SFU)  IS MOST LIKELY
ENHANCED FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 8084 (N21E26) IS EXPERIENCING
EXTREMELY RAPID GROWTH, INCREASING SUNSPOT AREA SEVERAL FOLD AND
DEVELOPING PENUMBRA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL FLARE-BRIGHT FLUCTUATIONS AND SUBFLARES AS IT EMERGES.
REGION 8085 (S25E53) CONTINUES TO GROW AS WELL AND IS PRESENTLY AN
F-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085.
ANOTHER SMALL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THESE REGIONS
BUT IS NOT THOUGHT TO BE IMMINENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY STATIONS FROM ABOUT 08/1400-1700Z. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 SEP 119
PREDICTED   09 SEP-11 SEP  115/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        08 SEP 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05