:Product: 19970909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 252 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8085 (S25E40) CONTINUED
TO GROW AND PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, INCLUDING A C9/1N AT 09/0953Z.
REGION 8083 (S28W22) HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT IN SUNSPOT AREA. THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBFLARES AS WELL BUT NOTHING LARGER
THAN B-CLASS IN X-RAYS. REGION 8084 (N22E13) HAS DOUBLED IN SUNSPOT
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF GROWTH SEEMS TO HAVE
DECLINED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF REGIONS 8083,
8084, AND 8085. THESE REGIONS APPEAR CAPABLE OF LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
MOST DISTURBED CONDITIONS OCCURRED DURING THE 09/0600-1200Z PERIODS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM NORMAL TO HIGH,
CROSSING THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT 09/1848Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 SEP-12 SEP
CLASS M    25/20/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 SEP 116
PREDICTED   10 SEP-12 SEP  120/120/118
90 DAY MEAN        09 SEP 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP  012/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP  016/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP  015/015-015/012-015/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 SEP-12 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05