:Product: 19970910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 253 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  A SINGLE C1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, MOSTLY LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM REGION 8084
(N22W01).  REGION 8084, A STABLE 22-SPOT 'DSI' BETA GROUP, ALSO
GENERATED FOUR SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8083 (S28W35), A
19-SPOT 'DKO' BETA GROUP, PRODUCED A COUPLE OF SUBFLARES WHILE
GROWING IN SIZE BY 30% TO 710 MILLIONTHS. REGION 8085 (S26E27), THE
MOST COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK
AS A 24-SPOT 'FKI' BETA-GAMMA GROUP, HAS STOPPED GROWING AT 610
MILLIONTHS AND IS CURRENTLY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE PROBABILITY OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM ANY OF REGIONS
8083, 8084, AND 8085 REMAINS HIGH. IN ADDITION, REGION 8085 HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ALTERNATED
BETWEEN NORMAL AND HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR
STORMING ON DAY 3 IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S HALO MASS EJECTION THAT
ACCOMPANIED THE M1 FLARE FROM REGION 8083.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 SEP-13 SEP
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 SEP 115
PREDICTED   11 SEP-13 SEP  115/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        10 SEP 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP  019/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP  015/012-015/008-015/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 SEP-13 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05