:Product: 19970911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 254 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGIONS 8083 (S28W48), 8084 (N22W13), AND 8085 (S26E15)
HAVE ALL REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET SINCE YESTERDAY.
REGION 8085 CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST COMPLEX AS A 25-SPOT 'FKI'
BETA-GAMMA GROUP.  IN ADDITION, NEW REGION 8086, A SIMPLE 'BXO' BETA
GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS IT ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  THE PROBABILITY FOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS REMAINS HIGH
FOR REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8085.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 10/2100-2400Z. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY TWO, AND MOSTLY UNSETTLED ON
DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 SEP 109
PREDICTED   12 SEP-14 SEP  105/105/102
90 DAY MEAN        11 SEP 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP  017/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/15
MINOR STORM           10/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    06/06/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/15
MINOR STORM           10/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    06/06/01