:Product: 19970912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
************************************ CORRECTED COPY ******************************************
SDF NUMBER 255 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8084 (N22W26), A 22-SPOT
'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP FOR MOST OF THE REPORTING PERIOD, HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AN EMERGING FLUX REGION OF REVERSED POLARITY IN
THE FOLLOWING PART OF THE REGION, CREATING STEEP FIELD GRADIENTS.
THE REGION NOW DISPLAYS A MODEST DELTA CONFIGURATION AND ELONGATED
SPOTS IN THIS AREA, AND HAS GENERATED THREE C1 FLARES AND
NUMEROUS SUBFLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8085 (S26E02), A
33-SPOT 'FKI' BETA GROUP, AND 8083 (S27W59), A 12-SPOT 'EKO' BETA
GROUP, REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE PROBABILITY FOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS REMAINS HIGH
FOR REGIONS 8084 AND 8085, WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
REGION 8084 ALSO PRESENTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY HIGH TO VERY HIGH,
CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT APPROXIMATELY 10/1700Z,
AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING
TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE,
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 SEP-15 SEP
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 SEP 109
PREDICTED   13 SEP-15 SEP  108/107/105
90 DAY MEAN        12 SEP 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP  015/015-010/010-005/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 SEP-15 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01