:Product: 19970913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 256 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C2  X-RAY
EVENT, MOST LIKLEY FROM REGION 8086 (N27E50), OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION, A 5-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP, ALSO PRODUCED
FOUR SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8084 (N22W39) HAS LOST SOME
OF IT'S SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINS STABLE IN AREA AS A
16-SPOT 'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OF NOTE FROM
REGION 8084 THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN A COUPLE OF SUBFLARES. REGION 8085
(S26W12) CONTINUES TO BE STABLE AND QUIET AS AN 18-SPOT 'FKI' BETA
GROUP. REGION 8083 (S28W73) HAS DECAYED INTO A 7-SPOT 'DAO' BETA
GROUP AS IT PREPARES TO ROTATE OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW, WITH ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS LIKLEY. IN ADDITION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8084
OR 8085 STILL EXISTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY
HIGH TO VERY HIGH, CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT
APPROXIMATELY 13/1745Z, AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOSTLY
UNSETTLED ON DAY TWO WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS, AND BACK DOWN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 SEP 108
PREDICTED   14 SEP-16 SEP  108/106/106
90 DAY MEAN        13 SEP   078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  010/010-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01