:Product: 19970915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 258 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8084 (N21W64) PRODUCED A
C3.6/SF AND A C4/SF FLARE. THIS REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
SLOW DECAY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8086 (N27E27) PRODUCED
A C1/SN AND A C1/SF FLARE. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY GROWING. REGION
8085 (S26W37) REMAINED QUIET AND IS SLOWLY DECAYING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8084 AND 8086 BOTH HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED
C-CLASS EVENTS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH AN ISOLATED
PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT MID LATITUDES AROUND 15/0300Z AND HIGH
LATITUDES AROUND 15/1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS CONTINUED IN THE HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
CLASS M    15/15/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 SEP 098
PREDICTED   16 SEP-18 SEP  098/098/094
90 DAY MEAN        15 SEP 079
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 SEP  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP  010/010-010/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01