:Product: 19970916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 259 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8086 (N28E14) PRODUCED A
SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 15/2125Z. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY DECAYING. AN
UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 16/2030Z. REGION 8084
(N22W77), STILL GROWING,  PRODUCED A SERIES OF B-CLASS FLARES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8085 (25W55) WAS QUIET AND IS SLOWLY
DECAYING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8084 AND 8086 HAVE A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF CONTINUED
C-CLASS FLARING AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 SEP-19 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 SEP 095
PREDICTED   17 SEP-19 SEP  094/090/086
90 DAY MEAN        16 SEP 079
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  010/008-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 SEP-19 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01