:Product: 19970917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 260 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8084 (N22W88), NOW
DECAYED INTO A DRO GROUP OF 6 SPOTS AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB,
PRODUCED AN M1.7/SN FLARE AT 17/1143Z AND AN M1/SF FLARE AT
17/1803Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE AT 16/2222Z.
REGION 8085 (S25W72) MANAGED TO PRODUCE A C1/SF FLARE AS IT NEARED
THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS AN HAX SPOT GROUP.
REGION 8086 (N27E00) HAS ELONGATED BUT DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND WAS RELATIVELY QUIET. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 FLARES
WERE DETECTED AS WELL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8084 AND 8086 STILL HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING AND
A SMALL CHANCE OF AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. REGION 8085
HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 SEP-20 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 SEP 093
PREDICTED   18 SEP-20 SEP  090/086/082
90 DAY MEAN        17 SEP 079
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 SEP-20 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01