:Product: 19970918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 261 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
C-CLASS FLARES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED WITH ONLY ONE OPTICALLY CORRELATED
WITH REGION 8084 WHICH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB OF THE SUN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARING
EXISTS FROM REGIONS 8085 AND  8086.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT
ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE LAST TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 SEP-21 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 SEP 088
PREDICTED   19 SEP-21 SEP  086/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        18 SEP 079
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 SEP  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP  015/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP  005/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 SEP-21 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01