:Product: 19970919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 262 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C8/1F AT 19/0150Z WHICH WAS
OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 8085 (S25W90).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8086
(N27W25).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 SEP 088
PREDICTED   20 SEP-22 SEP  086/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        19 SEP 080
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 SEP  014/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01