:Product: 19970920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 263 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A LONG DURATION EVENT
OCCURRED AT 20/1044Z FROM A C2 FLARE WHICH WAS UNCORRELATED
OPTICALLY. REGION 8086 (N29W38) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE
SOLAR DISK TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. C-CLASS FLARING IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8086.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 SEP 088
PREDICTED   21 SEP-23 SEP  086/084/086
90 DAY MEAN        20 SEP 080
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01