:Product: 19970921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 264 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY
FLARE WAS DETECTED AT 21/0417Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY
AS REGION 8087 (S22E72) AND REGION 8088 (S28E53). REGION 8086
(N26W54) HAS GROWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS NOW A CAO SPOT
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE THIRD DAY DUE TO RECURRENT
ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 SEP 085
PREDICTED   22 SEP-24 SEP  084/086/088
90 DAY MEAN        21 SEP 081
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 SEP  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01