:Product: 19970922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 265 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8088
(S28E39) EMERGED AT A RAPID PACE AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE
C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C5/SF EVENT AT 22/1817Z. THIS
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME.
REGION 8087 (S22E58) PRODUCED TWO SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE
PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW WITH REGION 8088 BEING THE PRIMARY C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCER.
SHOULD GROWTH HERE CONTINUE AT THE CURRENT PACE, SMALL M-CLASS
EVENTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND
DATA INDICATED A MODERATE DENSITY INCREASE (TO 40 P/CC) DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS POSTULATED THAT THE EARTH RECEIVED AN OBLIQUE STRIKE
FROM A CME OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMB ON 17 SEP. AFTER
22/0600Z THE FIELD RAPIDLY REACHED QUIET LEVELS AND CONTINUED SO FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING 24-25 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
CLASS M    20/30/35
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 SEP 089
PREDICTED   23 SEP-25 SEP 091/093/095
90 DAY MEAN        22 SEP 081
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  011/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  005/005-008/012-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01