:Product: 19970923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 266 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW DURING THE PERIOD. THE
LARGEST EVENT WAS A B9.5/SF FROM REGION 8088 (S28E25). THE GROWTH
RATE IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MINOR MAGNETIC
FIELD MIXING BECAME VISIBLE IN THE TRAILER OF THIS REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES EXPECTED FROM
REGION 8088.  THIS REGION HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 SEP-26 SEP
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 SEP 092
PREDICTED   24 SEP-26 SEP  093/094/094
90 DAY MEAN        23 SEP 081
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP  010/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 SEP-26 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01