:Product: 19970924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 267 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DURING THE PERIOD. REGION
8088 (S28E11) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M5/1B AT 24/0248Z WITH STRONG
TYPE II AND IV SWEEP EVENTS. THE TYPE IV WAS OBSERVED FROM
24/0248-0615Z. THE 2695 MHZ BURST WITH THIS EVENT WAS 650 F.U.
REGION 8088 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/SF AT 24/1106Z WITH A STRONG TYPE II
AND MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE IV. MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS ACCOMPANIED
THIS EVENT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C8/1N AT 24/1834Z WITH A
WEAK TYPE II. REGION 8088 ALSO PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C1.5 EVENT
FROM 23/2136-2350Z. CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND VERY LARGE CORONAL
MORETON WAVES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS LONG DURATION EVENT AND THE M5
MENTIONED ABOVE. REGION 8088 CONTINUES TO GROW AT A SLOW TO MODERATE
PACE AND IS NOW MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA-GAMMA REGION
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A LOW TO
MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH REGION 8088 AS THE
SOURCE REGION. OBVIOUSLY, THIS REGION IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MID-LEVEL M-CLASS EVENTS.  STABILIZATION IN THIS REGION COULD RESULT
IN AN ABRUPT HALT TO FLARE ACTIVITY DUE TO ITS SMALL TO MODERATE
WHITE LIGHT AREA.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 25 SEP AND THE FIRST HALF OF
26 SEP. THE MASS EJECTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE EARTH ON LATE 26 SEP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 27 SEP. ACTIVE TO
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME, ESPECIALLY AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 SEP 093
PREDICTED   25 SEP-27 SEP  095/096/097
90 DAY MEAN        24 SEP 081
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP  010/015-025/025-040/040
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/40/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/30
MINOR STORM           10/20/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/20