:Product: 19970925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 268 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8088 (S28W02) PRODUCED A
C7/1N FLARE AT 25/1149Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. THE GROWTH IN THIS
REGION IS ABATING WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT INCREASE OBSERVED DURING
THE PERIOD. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES EXIST IN THE LEADER AND
TRAILER OF THIS REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PRIMARILY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8088 IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 26 SEP WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 27-28 SEP
IN RESPONSE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED ON 23-24 SEP.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT
TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 SEP-28 SEP
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 SEP 089
PREDICTED   26 SEP-28 SEP  089/088/089
90 DAY MEAN        25 SEP 081
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP  018/018-040/040-020/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 SEP-28 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/40
MINOR STORM           15/30/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/40
MINOR STORM           20/35/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/15/10