:Product: 19970926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 269 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST
DAY WAS A C4/SN AT 26/0317Z IN REGION 8088 (S29W16). THIS REGION HAS
SHOWN SLOW DECAY IN BOTH SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER SINCE YESTERDAY.
THE REMAINING SUNSPOTS IN THIS REGION ARE IN A SIMPLE BIPOLAR
CONFIGURATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGION 8088. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON 23-24 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 SEP 089
PREDICTED   27 SEP-29 SEP  090/090/090
90 DAY MEAN        26 SEP 082
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  040/030-020/020-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05